Polymarket
Kalshi
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Viewer
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Auto
0 results Avg Edge: -- | Max Edge: --
-- Pure Market Engine
-- Candidates
-- Executable Signals
-- Target Exposure
-- Optimizer Blocks
-- Platform Integrations
-- Adaptive Hurdle
Top Themes Exposure
No exposure data
Top Platforms Exposure
No exposure data
Event Outcome Buy On Sell On Spread Buy Sell Edge % Conf. Actions
Loading data...

Paper Trades

-- Total
-- Open
$1,000.00 Balance
-- Expected P&L
-- Realized P&L
-- Avg Spread
# Event Outcome Buy On Sell On Entry Spread Live Spread Notional Shares Expected P&L Live P&L Realized P&L Status Opened Actions
No paper trades yet. Click "Paper Trade" on any opportunity.
Spread Distribution
Opportunities by Type
Platform Comparison
Opportunity Count Over Time
Profit vs Confidence Scatter
Market Coverage Heatmap
0 markets
Platform Market YES NO Volume Category Actions
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Select Market

Orderbook

Select a market to view its orderbook

Data & Refresh

60s

Arbitrage Detection

0.020
0.35
0.40

Risk Management

10%
50%

Appearance

Categories

LMSR Bot — Core

100
0.40
0.030
0.25
25%

LMSR Bot — Trading

LMSR Bot — Allocation

LMSR Bot — Momentum Filter

LMSR Bot — Costs & Buffers

LMSR Bot — Execution

Actions

Run Controls

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Autotune + Scheduler

Scheduler not loaded.

Actions

Live Jobs

ID Name Type Status Progress Step Elapsed ETA Actions
No tuning jobs yet.

Selected Tuning Job Analytics

Selected Job
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Variants
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Avg PnL Delta
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Avg Trades/hr
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Realtime Job Events

Select a job to stream events.

Stored Rollups

Job Variant Score Weighted PnL Balance Trades Trades/hr
No stored rollups yet.

Tuning Charts

Monte Carlo Controls

LMSR
Market Edge

Monte Carlo Jobs

IDNameTypeStatusProgress StepElapsedETARunActions
No Monte Carlo jobs yet.

Monte Carlo Realtime Events

Select a Monte Carlo job to stream events.

Selected Monte Carlo Run Charts

Selected Job
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Run Type
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Mean PnL
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P50 Return
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Monte Carlo Top Results

JobTypeObjectiveMean PnLP50 ReturnP95 ReturnProb Profit
No Monte Carlo results yet.
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Bot Status
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Process
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Last Poll
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Poll Count
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Signals Seen
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Trades Executed
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Last Cycle Fills
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Cycle Blocks
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Total Trades
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Total Notional
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Realized P&L
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Unrealized P&L
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Open Positions
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Avg Edge
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Paper Entries
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Live Entries
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Model Edge PnL
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Engine Signals

Bot Controls

Blocked Reasons

ReasonCount
No blocks this cycle.

Trade Mix

PlatformTrades
No trades yet.

Market Health

PlatformConnectedFreshMarkets
Waiting for status snapshot.

Recent Trades

IDTimeKindModePlatformSide Edge %ConfNotionalRealizedStatusEvent
No trades yet.

Open Positions

IDOpenedPlatformSideEntryMark NotionalUnrealizedEvent
No open positions.
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Bot Status
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Active Markets
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Signals
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Net Edge
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Allocated ($)
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Polls
WS: polling --
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Balance ($)
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Total P&L
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Realized P&L
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Unrealized P&L
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Win Rate
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W:L Ratio
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Profit Factor
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Max Drawdown
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Trades (W/L)
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Raw Edge (Abs)
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Net Edge (Abs)
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Net/Raw %
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Avg Hurdle
Tracked Markets
Market Duration Time Left CLOB Price LMSR Price Edge (raw/net) Signal Kelly % Bet ($) Blocked Reason Action
Connecting to LMSR bot...
Layer 1: Research Agent Scores SpreadDetector | LatencyArb | LiquidityScanner → Bayesian Fusion
Market Spread Score Latency Score Liquidity Score Fused Confidence CEX Correlation Last Update
Loading agent scores...
Execution Diagnostics Gate blockers and net-edge distribution
0
Confidence Blocks
0
Win-rate Blocks
0
Correlation Blocks
0
Tail-risk Blocks
0
Platform-risk Blocks
0
Latency Blocks
0
Drawdown Blocks
0.0 bps
Avg Slippage
Top Blocked ReasonCount
Loading diagnostics...
|Net Edge| BucketMarketsShare
Loading diagnostics...
Balance & Cumulative P&L
Raw vs Net Edge (Abs) + Avg Hurdle
Open Positions
# Market Dir Entry Mark Bet ($) U-P&L ($) U-Return % Opened
No open positions.
Trade History (paper)
# Market Dir Entry Exit Bet ($) P&L ($) Return % Status Opened
No trades yet.
* Open-trade P&L is live mark-to-market (unrealised).
Bot Control

LMSR bot settings have been moved to the Settings tab.

Live Capital + Dynamic Rates
Capital: -- Rates: -- Rate Sync: --
Process: not managed
How it works

The LMSR engine tracks a damped fair-value of each 5m/15m Polymarket market. At each poll it infers the net order-flow implied by the CLOB price move and applies only Damping × that volume to the LMSR model. This creates a smoothed baseline that lags behind sudden price spikes.

When |CLOB − LMSR| ≥ Min Edge a signal is raised. BUY_YES when the market dipped below fair value; SELL_YES (buy NO) when it spiked above. Kelly criterion sizes the bet, scaled by √(t_remaining/t_total) to reduce exposure near resolution.

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Bot Health
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Ready
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Opportunities
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Process
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-- Pools Tracked
-- Current Block
-- Cycles Checked
-- Best Profit (hbip)
-- Broadcasted
-- Workers Ready
-- Gas Feed Ready
-- Tx Processed
-- Reactions Sent
-- Block Fetch (ms)
Recent Opportunities last 200 entries
# Time Token Profit (hbip) Profit % Amount In Amount Out Hops Block Broadcast Tx Hash
Waiting for bot data...
Bot Control
Setup

The Ekubo bot runs as a Rust binary that detects cyclic DEX arbitrage opportunities on Starknet's Ekubo AMM.

Required environment variables (set in ekubo-arbitrage/.env):

  • APP_RPC_URL — Starknet JSON-RPC endpoint
  • APP_RPC_WS_URL — WebSocket RPC URL
  • APP_ACCOUNT_ADDRESS — wallet address (hex)
  • APP_ACCOUNT_PRIVATE_KEY — private key (hex)
  • APP_FROM_BLOCK — starting block (e.g. 6880900)

To run externally:

cd ekubo-arbitrage
cp .env.example .env
# fill in .env
cargo run --release --bin ekubo-arb

Profit is measured in hbip (hundredth basis points).
1 hbip = 0.0001% = 0.000001 of notional.